The scale of the energy shift is striking. Wind power’s share of Brazil’s electricity mix climbed from just 2 percent in 2012 to 14.1 percent by 2025, while solar photovoltaic energy surged from 1.1 percent in 2018 to 23.4 percent in 2025. Globally, wind and solar installations are projected to account for 95 percent of all renewable energy expansion by 2028, according to the International Energy Agency. Brazil has embraced this transition with particular enthusiasm, concentrating large-scale projects in the windy, sun-drenched Northeast, where the Caatinga’s xeric shrublands have proven ideal for turbine arrays and photovoltaic fields alike. But every turbine foundation, access road, and solar panel array consumes land, and the researchers wanted to know what happens to the wider landscape around them.

Previous studies had examined land use change directly at power plant sites. One analysis of wind farm locations across four Brazilian states found that 3.2 percent of site areas had been converted from native vegetation to human use, while research in northern Minas Gerais documented requests to remove roughly 83,000 trees to make way for solar expansion. The new work takes a fundamentally different approach. Rather than focusing on the fenced-in footprint of each facility, a team led by Felipe Husadel Poyer of Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research and the University of Manchester asked whether the arrival of renewable energy infrastructure reshapes land use across entire municipalities, capturing ripple effects that site-level studies miss entirely.

The methodology was ambitious. Drawing on data from the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency and the National Electric System Operator, the team identified 129 municipalities hosting utility-scale wind or solar facilities connected to the national grid by the end of 2022. Ninety-two of these towns host wind power exclusively, 31 host only solar photovoltaic installations, and six host both. Using MapBiomas, a publicly available annual land cover dataset processed through Google Earth Engine, the researchers quantified land use categories pixel by pixel across a 23-year window from 2000 to 2022, providing a robust baseline stretching well before the first large wind facility came online in 2006 and the first centralized solar plant in 2017.

What distinguishes the study is the rigor of its statistical framework. The authors refused to accept mere correlation. For each land cover category, they required a battery of tests to align before declaring a meaningful link to the renewable energy timeline: a Spearman rank correlation with an absolute value above 0.7, a significant trend confirmed by the Mann-Kendall test, statistical significance from a T-test, and a Granger causality test showing that power plant timelines actually carried predictive information about land transitions. This multi-step validation, applied across municipalities grouped by population size, biome, income, energy source, and state, was designed to isolate the influence of energy deployment from the random fluctuations that plague land use data.

The national picture that emerged is sobering. Between 2000 and 2022, savanna formation across the 129 renewable municipalities shrank by 8,908 hectares, the largest absolute loss of any category, while agriculture expanded by 8,709 hectares. Urban areas grew by 343 hectares and forest plantations by 594 hectares, modest in absolute terms but representing relative increases of 62 percent and 140 percent respectively. Statistically, urban expansion showed an almost perfect positive correlation with the renewable energy timeline, with a Spearman coefficient of 0.99, while savanna formation showed an almost perfect negative correlation at minus 0.97. Agriculture and urban areas both passed the full battery of tests, including Granger causality, meaning the energy buildout did not merely coincide with these changes but preceded them in a predictive sense.

The most striking finding concerns the size of the host towns. Renewable plants overwhelmingly cluster in small settlements: 96 of the 129 municipalities have populations below 20,000, and 27 more fall between 20,000 and 100,000. In small and medium-sized towns, urban expansion was tightly and significantly linked to energy deployment, with correlation coefficients of 0.99 and 0.97. The contrast between two illustrative cases makes the pattern vivid. In Pedra Grande, Rio Grande do Norte, a town of just 3,618 people, urban area began expanding noticeably in 2011, three years before the 118.4-megawatt União dos Ventos wind plant became operational, as construction crews arrived demanding labor, housing, and services. In Juazeiro, Bahia, home to nearly 238,000 people and its first solar plant in 2018, no comparable urban signal appeared. In large municipalities with diversified economies and consolidated urban fabrics, the territorial impact of a single power project is simply diluted beyond statistical detection.

Biome-level analysis sharpened the concern. The Caatinga hosts 100 of the 129 renewable municipalities, and it registered a significant positive response for urban expansion, evidence of what the authors call the interiorization of development, where energy clusters stimulate the growth of small urban centers in a fragile semi-arid region. In the Cerrado, a global biodiversity hotspot already battered by mechanized agriculture and cattle ranching, agricultural land expansion tracked the renewable energy timeline with striking precision. This raises what researchers term the green-on-green dilemma: decarbonization goals potentially intensifying land use pressure in ecosystems already under siege. Wind municipalities, whose turbine layouts permit shared land uses like grazing but require extensive road networks that open territories to further occupation, showed stronger links to agricultural growth than solar municipalities, whose concentrated footprints correlated mainly with urban change.

Equally revealing were the results that failed to materialize. Neither municipal income nor federative state, the conventional levers of Brazilian policy analysis, showed statistically significant relationships with land transformation patterns when the strict testing framework was applied. This absence challenges the assumption that state-level governance or economic prosperity primarily determines how renewable projects reshape territory. Instead, the evidence points to localized factors, land availability, community dynamics, and existing land use patterns, as the dominant forces. Earlier qualitative research underscores the stakes: interviews in Rio Grande do Norte found residents describing wind development as a double-edged sword, welcoming infrastructure growth while enduring noise, dust, and degraded roads, while scholars have warned of green grabbing, in which low-carbon technologies shift land control toward external investors at the expense of local communities.

The authors argue their findings demand a fundamental rethinking of Brazilian energy planning. They recommend state-level strategic environmental assessments to identify low-conflict zones before siting decisions are made, and more effective benefit-sharing mechanisms that reinvest energy revenue in host communities. If urban growth in small Caatinga towns can now be anticipated as a consequence of renewable deployment, they contend, then municipal infrastructure must be planned in advance to support equitable expansion. The message resonates far beyond Brazil: as nations race to decarbonize, the assumption that green energy is automatically green in every sense deserves scrutiny. Every energy source entails trade-offs, and only by understanding them comprehensively, at the scale where land and lives actually intersect, can the renewable transition avoid reproducing the very land conflicts and inequalities it was meant to transcend.

Subject of Research: Land use and land cover change driven by wind and solar energy development in Brazilian municipalities

Article Title: Land transformation driven by wind and solar development in Brazilian municipalities

Article References: Poyer, F. H., da Conceição Bispo, P., Borba, P. C. S., Cumplido, M. A., Leite-Filho, A. T., da Costa Ruv Lemes, M., Cunha, C. S., Lucena, A. F. P., & Pereira, E. B. (2026). Land transformation driven by wind and solar development in Brazilian municipalities. Regional Environmental Change, 26(4), Article 203. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-026-02694-9

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s10113-026-02694-9

Keywords: renewable energy, land use change, wind power, solar energy, Brazil, Caatinga, Cerrado, remote sensing, urban expansion, municipal planning, energy transition, environmental impact