The study, published in the journal Solar Physics, was carried out by V. N. Obridko of the Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN), M. M. Katsova of the Sternberg Astronomical Institute at Lomonosov Moscow State University, and D. D. Sokoloff of the Faculty of Physics at Lomonosov Moscow State University. Their work draws on the full record of soft X-ray flare monitoring by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, or GOES, which began in 1975 and has provided the standard classification of solar flares ever since. That continuous, homogeneous dataset is what makes a statistically meaningful look at flare behavior across multiple cycles possible.

Solar flares are classified by their peak soft X-ray brightness as measured by the GOES instruments, with X-class flares representing the most powerful events, each releasing energy equivalent to billions of megatons of TNT. The researchers focused on the great flares, from the relatively moderate X4 class up to the extreme X10 class and beyond, and asked a deceptively simple question: where on the solar disk do these events occur, and how does their location and frequency change as the solar cycle progresses? To answer it, they traced the latitudinal distribution of X-class flares throughout four cycles and compared the flare positions directly with the structure of the Sun’s large-scale magnetic field.

The picture that emerges is one of overlapping magnetic waves. Over the course of a solar cycle, the zones where sunspots and active regions appear migrate steadily from mid-latitudes toward the equator, a pattern known since the nineteenth century as Spörer’s law. At the same time, a second wave of activity belonging to the next cycle begins at higher latitudes and propagates poleward. The new analysis shows that the relatively weak members of the great-flare family, those in the X4 to X7 range, tend to occur at relatively high latitudes of roughly 15 to 20 degrees, precisely where these two waves of activity converge: one moving equatorward as the current cycle matures, and the other, the wave of the following cycle, directed poleward. These events are observed almost continuously during the one to two years before the cycle maximum.

The most powerful flares, however, tell a different story. The total number of powerful X-ray flares increases sharply during the maximum phase of the cycle, as expected from the sheer abundance of magnetically complex active regions. But the greatest events, those of X10 class and stronger, are largely absent during the growth phase of the cycle. Instead, they begin to appear one to two years before the maximum number of sunspots is reached, during the overlapping phase when different kinds of activity waves coexist on the Sun at relatively high latitudes. They then continue to appear throughout the declining phase, at the boundary that separates the wave of local fields from the poleward wave of the following cycle.

This timing is significant because it challenges the simplest expectation that flare intensity should peak exactly when sunspot numbers do. The researchers’ conclusion is that the greatest X-ray flares are not merely a byproduct of having many sunspots, but are tied to a specific magnetic configuration that arises when the outgoing and incoming activity waves overlap. In dynamo theory, the solar cycle is understood as a propagating wave of magnetic field generated by the interplay of turbulent plasma motions and the Sun’s rotation, and the interaction zones between successive waves provide conditions in which magnetic fields of opposite polarity and different origins can be forced together, building up the enormous stresses that power the largest eruptions.

The technical foundation of the analysis rests on comparing flare positions with synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic field, which chart the distribution of magnetic flux across the solar surface over each solar rotation. The magnetic field data were drawn from the synoptic program at Stanford University’s Wilcox Solar Observatory, while sunspot numbers came from the World Data Center SILSO at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. By overlaying the latitudes of great flares on these magnetic structures, the team could show that flare sites are not randomly distributed within the activity belts but are preferentially located at the interfaces between magnetic regimes, where the wave of local active-region fields meets the large-scale poleward-migrating field of the next cycle.

The practical implications of this finding reach well beyond solar physics. Great X-class flares, particularly when accompanied by coronal mass ejections, are the primary drivers of space weather, capable of disrupting satellite operations, radio communications, GPS navigation, and power grids on Earth. The May 2024 G5-level geomagnetic storm, triggered by a barrage of eruptions from a single enormous active region, offered a vivid recent reminder of how much is at stake. If the largest flares preferentially occur in the years around and after sunspot maximum, and especially at the magnetic boundaries identified in this study, then space-weather forecasting could gain a valuable statistical tool: the periods of greatest extreme-flare risk may extend well past the sunspot peak, rather than ending with it.

The results also connect to a broader body of research on the extended solar cycle and the large-scale magnetic field. Earlier work by members of the same team has traced cyclic variations in the main components of the Sun’s large-scale magnetic field and examined the asymmetry introduced by the extended cycle, in which traces of the next cycle appear years before the current one fades. The new flare analysis adds an independent observational thread to this picture, suggesting that the overlap of activity waves is not a subtle theoretical curiosity but a physically consequential configuration that leaves a measurable imprint on the most energetic events in the solar system.

For now, the study’s conclusions rest on four cycles of GOES data, a sample that is large enough to reveal the pattern but still limited in the sense that each solar cycle has its own character. Some cycles are strong and some are weak, and the recalibration of the greatest GOES soft X-ray flare measurements across two Hale cycles remains an active area of research. Nevertheless, the message of the new work is clear and testable: to understand when the Sun will unleash its very worst, astronomers need to look not only at how many sunspots dot the surface, but at where two great waves of solar magnetism meet and mingle. As the current cycle progresses toward and past its maximum, the boundaries identified in this study will be among the most closely watched regions on the Sun.

Subject of Research: Cycle-dependent latitudinal occurrence of great soft X-ray solar flares in relation to overlapping solar magnetic activity waves

Article Title: Cycle Variation in the Occurrence of Great Soft X-ray Solar Flares

Article References: Obridko, V. N., Katsova, M. M., & Sokoloff, D. D. (2026). Cycle Variation in the Occurrence of Great Soft X-ray Solar Flares. Solar Physics, 301(9), Article 140. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-026-02732-z

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s11207-026-02732-z

Keywords: solar flares, X-class flares, solar cycle, space weather, solar magnetic field, GOES, solar dynamo, sunspots, Solar Physics, coronal mass ejections, activity waves, solar maximum