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This photo shows a glacier on Svalbard. This island is a ‘hotspot’ for climate change, where warming is very rapid. The study describes a very high change in surface air temperature (TAS), but also a high variablity, which affects the ‘Time of Emergence’.
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Credit: Richard Bintanja, University of Groningen
When does ‘anomalous weather’ become ‘a new climate’? The moment that variations in a specific climate variable turn into the new normal is termed Time of Emergence (ToE). Scientists from the University of Groningen and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) have developed a method to predict time of emergence in various Arctic regions, based on warming, wetting, and sea ice melting. The ToE for temperature and sea ice is in the near future, i.e. somewhere before 2050, whereas the amount of rainfall will enter a new climate state at the end of the century. The results have been published in the journal Scientific Reports on 12 April.
The scientists have used 14 global climate models and fed them with various greenhouse gas emission scenarios and aerosol amounts to reconstruct the past and predict future Arctic climate changes. The ToE was defined as the time when the values for a climate variable have been higher than 97.5 percent of the historical values for ten consecutive years. The results show that, even though the Arctic is rapidly warming, ToE for temperature and sea ice cover has generally not yet been reached. This is mainly due to the extremely high natural variability in these Arctic variables.
Most sensitive predictor for climate change
There are large regional differences. For example, sea ice thickness has already reached a new climate state in the central Arctic region, as there is a relatively small variability in year-to-year thickness. This makes sea ice the most sensitive predictor for climate change.
‘We were excited to see that we were able to estimate ToE in a consistent and robust way,’ says Richard Bintanja, University of Groningen Professor of Climate and Environmental Change and corresponding author of the study. The new predictions for ToE will help local Arctic inhabitants to adapt to the new Arctic climate. Bintanja: ‘The next step is to apply these insights in society, policy, and ecology’.
Reference: Nicoleta Tsakali, Marlen Kolbe, Richard Bintanja & Nomikos Skyllas: The time of emergence of Arctic warming, wetting and sea ice melting. Scientific Reports, 12 April 2025
Journal
Scientific Reports
Method of Research
Data/statistical analysis
Subject of Research
Not applicable
Article Title
The time of emergence of Arctic warming, wetting and sea ice melting
Article Publication Date
12-Apr-2025
COI Statement
None
Media Contact
Rene Fransen
University of Groningen
r.fransen@rug.nl
Office: *3150 3636951
Cell: *31631921790
Journal
Scientific Reports
Method of Research
Data/statistical analysis
Subject of Research
Not applicable
Article Title
The time of emergence of Arctic warming, wetting and sea ice melting
Article Publication Date
12-Apr-2025
COI Statement
None
Keywords
bu içeriği en az 2000 kelime olacak şekilde ve alt başlıklar ve madde içermiyecek şekilde ünlü bir science magazine için İngilizce olarak yeniden yaz. Teknik açıklamalar içersin ve viral olacak şekilde İngilizce yaz. Haber dışında başka bir şey içermesin. Haber içerisinde en az 12 paragraf ve her bir paragrafta da en az 50 kelime olsun. Cevapta sadece haber olsun. Ayrıca haberi yazdıktan sonra içerikten yararlanarak aşağıdaki başlıkların bilgisi var ise haberin altında doldur. Eğer yoksa bilgisi ilgili kısmı yazma.:
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