New report calls for research to better understand, predict Gulf of Mexico’s loop current system

WASHINGTON – A new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine calls for an international, multi-institutional comprehensive campaign of research, observation, and analysis activities that would help improve understanding and prediction of the Gulf of Mexico's Loop Current System (LCS). The position, strength, and structure of the LCS — the dominant ocean circulation feature in the Gulf — has major implications for oil and gas operations, hurricane intensity, coastal ecosystems, oil spill response, the fishing industry, tourism, and the region's economy.

The report identifies a suite of complementary research efforts that would provide critical information about the LCS to help promote safer offshore operations, better understand the Gulf's complex oceanographic systems, facilitate disaster response, help protect coastal communities, protect and manage ecological resources, and predict and forecast weather and climate impacts. Estimated to take about 10 years and cost between $100 million and $125 million, the recommended research campaign is critical for more accurate predictions of the Loop Current's path, the report says.

"Improving our predictive skills and understanding of the Loop Current System is critical to operational safety and a variety of human activities in the Gulf," said Paul G. Gaffney II, chair of the committee that wrote the report, a retired Navy vice admiral, and president emeritus of Monmouth University. "Moreover, improving ocean modeling in the Gulf will also inform prediction efforts in other ocean basins. Our report identifies gaps in knowledge and recommends comprehensive measurements and research efforts that could be undertaken to fill these gaps."

The LCS flows northward through the Yucatán Channel up into the Gulf of Mexico where it eventually turns eastward and then southward before exiting out through the Florida Straits and feeding into the Gulf Stream. The position of the current varies greatly depending on whether it is in a retracted state or a more northerly, extended state. In addition, circular currents known as eddies — which can be 100-200 miles in diameter — occasionally separate from the main flow of the LCS and slowly migrate into the western Gulf.

Advancing understanding of the LCS could provide many benefits, the report says. For example, the lack of real-time, in situ observations in the deep ocean after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill made it difficult for first responders to track oil under the ocean's surface. Better information could have improved spill response and recovery operations. In addition, when the LCS is in its extended state, its strong currents pose significant operational safety concerns for oil and gas operations, causing costly slowdowns or shutdowns. Knowledge of the factors and dynamics that cause the LCS extended state could help the industry be better prepared.

However, despite decades of research, important questions about LCS dynamics remain unanswered, such as factors that influence the Loop Current extension into the Gulf and eddy shedding from the Loop Current. Most scientific observations of the LCS have been limited to ocean surface features and satellite data, and although there have been a number of field studies of the full water-column from ocean surface to seafloor, they were of limited geographic scope and over short time periods. While this research has advanced knowledge of the LCS, significant gaps remain in understanding the formation, variability, and structure of the LCS and its interaction with other dynamic processes in the Gulf.

The research campaign identified in the report consists of 30 recommendations for both near-term and long-term (decadal length) activities, which are divided into observational components, technology enhancements, analyses and theory, and data assimilation and numerical modeling techniques needed to provide critical information about the LCS. The recommendations are intended to help guide future funding investments by the Gulf Research Program (GRP) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, as well as federal U.S. agencies, Mexican and Cuban oceanographic research entities, research institutions, and other ocean science sponsors.

A webinar about the report and the first GRP funding opportunity related to it is scheduled for Thursday, Jan. 18 at 3 p.m. EST. The funding opportunity will open in early February and will focus on the report's near-term recommendations, which address activities that can be started before extensive planning for the larger research campaign has gotten underway. The observations and analyses to be completed through this initial funding opportunity will jumpstart and inform the design of the campaign. To receive updates, visit http://www.nas.edu/gulf/enews.

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The report was funded by the Gulf Research Program. The National Academies' Gulf Research Program is an independent, science-based program founded in 2013 as part of legal settlements with the companies involved in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster. It seeks to enhance offshore energy system safety and protect human health and the environment by catalyzing advances in science, practice, and capacity to generate long-term benefits for the Gulf of Mexico region and the nation. The program has $500 million for use over 30 years to fund grants, fellowships, and other activities in the areas of research and development, education and training, and monitoring and synthesis. Visit http://www.national-academies.org/gulf to learn more.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are private, nonprofit institutions that provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions related to science, technology, and medicine. The Academies operate under an 1863 congressional charter to the National Academy of Sciences, signed by President Lincoln. For more information, visit http://www.national-academies.org.

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES, ENGINEERING, AND MEDICINE

Gulf Research Program

Committee on Advancing Understanding of Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Dynamics

Paul G. Gaffney II* (chair)
Vice Admiral (retired)
United States Navy, and
President Emeritus
Monmouth University
Columbia, S.C.

Shuyi S. Chen
Professor of Atmospheric Sciences
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
University of Washington
Seattle

Steven F. DiMarco
Professor
Department of Oceanography, and
Ocean Observing Team Leader
Geochemical and Environmental Research Group
Texas A&M University
College Station

Scott Glenn
Distinguished Professor
Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, and
Co-Director
Center for Ocean Observing Leadership
Rutgers University
New Brunswick, N.J.

Ruoying He
Distinguished Professor
Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences
North Carolina State University
Raleigh

Joseph Kuehl
Assistant Professor
Department of Mechanical Engineering
University of Delaware
Newark

Robert Leben
Research Professor
Department of Aerospace Engineering Sciences, and
Member
Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research
University of Colorado
Boulder

Pierre F. Lermusiaux
Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Ocean Science and Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cambridge

Ruth M. Perry
Marine Scientist and Regulatory Policy Specialist
Shell Exploration and Production Co.
Houston

Daniel L. Rudnick
Professor of Climate, Atmospheric Science, and Physical Oceanography
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
La Jolla, Calif.

Neha Sharma
Vice President of Operations
Horizon Marine Inc.
Marion, Mass.

Randolph Watts
Professor
Graduate School of Oceanography
University of Rhode Island
Narragansett

Robert H. Weisberg
Distinguished University Professor
College of Marine Science
University of Southern Florida
St. Petersburg

Dana R. Yoerger
Senior Scientist
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Woods Hole, Mass.

STAFF

Kelly Oskvig
Staff Officer

*Member, National Academy of Engineering

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Molly Galvin
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http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=24823

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